16 Feb Film Fund-amentals: Apples and Oranges

Is it just me, or are we living in some pretty confusing times? Seemingly this is an era so lacking a center that everything appears to be flying every which way like a handful of nuts in a washing machine during the spin cycle.

A year ago, obits were being written for low-budget indie films. Now, indie movies are the latest hot item in the Hollywood market. At film festivals, deals are being made before the final reel is even over (OK, that Katie Holmes movie at Sundance was a big exception), and the indie marketplace is suddenly livelier than a swap meet at a Turkish rug fair. It’s more than a revival. It is virtually a resurrection.

The future looks great until you get to the theater and discover that budget-crunching tentpole movies are piled up everywhere you turn. The typical American megaplex looks like a 12-way truck crash at a demolition derby. The result is a stampede that has the so-called summer movies cranking up their release schedule around March and continuing through some point in 2012 (when the presumed end of civilization will slow things down a bit).

Part of the new drive behind indie movies is because they have an economic model that actually makes sense. For example, an indie flick like Winter’s Bone gets made for $2 million and makes $6.4 million at the box office (US only, still waiting on global distribution). OK, that isn’t a big profit, but basically it is a profit, and since it also stands to take in an equally nice sum in both DVD and foreign release, it has done pretty darn OK. Low cost with a decent return.

On the other hand, The Green Hornet has taken in $92.4 million US ($200 global). Sounds like a really great profit until you figure on the $120 million production budget (and since the figures for most of these suckers is presented in a low estimate, the real budget was probably around $160 to $180 million). Add another $5 to $10 million for converting the film to 3D and another $100 million (or more) for publicity. This is when you realize that your calculator isn’t big enough to handle the figures (and we still haven’t gotten around to all the cost overruns from the special effects crew). You just know that the box office report for this type of movie is largely meaningless.

Once you make this economic comparison, it’s obvious what Hollywood will want to do. They will want to make The Green Hornet Two right away. Immediately if not sooner. Maybe it can be a prequel. Heck, let’s reboot the series now. And can we get Johnny Depp into the cast?

It is partly true that comparisons between indie movies and big tentpole flicks are somewhat like comparing apples and oranges. They operate from very different models and have extremely different directions and focus. The low cost of an indie movie forces it to operate within a rational budget model that often has a reasonable degree of accountability. From an economic viewpoint, they’re lean and extremely manageable.

A tentpole movie has more fat than a pig at a luau, with a budget that is often padded in more ways than a room at the funny farm. Likewise, the system actually encourages higher spending rather than cost reduction. There’s a kind of shower room mentality in which various producers feel empowered by the size of their budget (and many weird tales of rivals comparing these figures).

Indie movies play to niche markets and specialized audiences. They require a slow, steady approach to release, often spending their first four or more weeks in only a handful of theaters as they build up a strong word-of-mouth reputation. They’re like a plant that needs water, sunlight and a little time to sprout and bloom.

Tentpole films are more like an avalanche. They move like a terrible, brutal force, destroying everything in their path. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the amount of room they need in theaters. A reasonably successfully indie film will, if its lucky, achieve a maximum distribution of 100 to 200 screens (occasionally, if they are very successful, they might hit a peak of 800 screens). A tentpole movie averages more than 3,200 screens nationally on its opening day. In any given week, there will be three to five films following this pattern. There are around 39,000 movie screens in America. Basically, nearly two thirds of these screens will be showing the same five titles. It’s very rare for an indie movie to be one of those five titles.

Because of their unique and more sophisticated market, indie movies get to focus on more complex and original subject matter. Well, at least in theory. In reality, a lot of indie films end up following formula approaches almost as much as a mainstream production. The big difference is due to niche marketing. Indie movies can pursue a smaller audience base and successfully work within that more narrowly defined area. For example, the gay cinema movement has been successful this way.

Tentpole movies simply can’t afford this approach. Most big-budget films are completely lacking in originality because it simply doesn’t pay. If it is truly original, you risk losing part of the audience. The bigger the budget, the more the movie has to be pre-packaged in terms of cast, concept and visual execution. It also helps if you can blow up a lot of stuff. Most people like watching stuff blow up. Big-scale explosions are popular and largely lacking in anything new or different. Just don’t blow up either a kid or a dog. Some people might find that disturbing. However, the adult cast is OK.

So yes, it is like apples and oranges. But the oranges are still dictating the whole system, taking up most of the resources and totally controlling the whole farm and market distribution system. Which might be almost OK if they were really oranges, but we keep finding out that there are mostly lemon trees in that grove.

Which is part of the reason why some folks in Hollywood are back to testing the apples. But don’t expect most of them to turn into a modern version of Johnny Appleseed.