24 Jun

Posted at 12:15h in Film Fundamentals
According to the prophets, the major studios will soon implode into a vast dark pit while meteors will fall and the rain shall turn into fire and brimstone. OK, that isn't exactly what was said by Steven Spielberg and George Lucas, but it would be pretty easy to jack it up that way for the movie version. The recent presentation by the two grand men at the media center of the University of Southern California has stirred up debate through out the film industry. Obviously I am no stranger to preaching about the End of Hollywood. But I didn't realize that they were already opening the Hollywood Death Cafe. At the core of their chat, Spielberg and Lucas both outlined the imminent demise of the current studio system. It seems ironic that they would bring this up about the same time that the movie Man of Steel would set a domestic release record. But Man of Steel actually proves their point.

11 Jun

Posted at 14:06h in Film Fundamentals
We all know what an indie film is, right?  It's a movie that is independently made...and that particular tautology sums up the problem. This use to be a pretty straight forward proposition. If it wasn't made by a Hollywood studio, it was an indie. Though this was strictly an institutional definition, it was viewed as relatively sufficient. But as Hollywood studios became media companies and the financial conditions of film production became an increasingly complex system of multiple investors, all movies have become largely independent productions in the most basic economic sense. Sure, these flicks are not indie movies in any way, shape or form. But they are not really studio movies either, since no studios really exist any more.

31 May

Posted at 14:55h in Film Fundamentals
Several years ago, I asked if the film industry knew their audience.  It's a question that can be asked at virtually every level of the business as demonstrated last month during a panel discussion at the International Cinema Technology Association. Of course, the presentation at the International Cinema Technology Association was primarily focused on exhibitor related issues.  Especially issues related to digital conversion, alternative content (for example, sports) and items at the concession stand.  For indie filmmakers, the second item might be the only interesting point.  After all, it's not impossible (though it might seem to be) that a theater might host something like a Thursday night indie presentation.

15 May

Posted at 00:33h in Film Fundamentals
Thanks to the New York Times, folks in the film industry are once again worrying about the invasion of the data crunchers. In the recent article Solving Equation of a Hit Film Script, With Data, reporter Brooks Barnes practically compares us data crunchers to a zombie invasion. And yes, I said “us.” I am a data cruncher (though oddly enough, we don't much use that term in the business).  So I do have a wee bit of an invested stake in this topic. Which is why I feel the need to set the record straight on a few points. 

14 May

Posted at 23:54h in Credit Spectrum

“Imagine the pharmaceutical industry having six FDAs, all competing to approve drugs,” said Rob Dobilas, who founded Realpoint LLC, the credit-rating company bought by Morningstar Inc. in 2010, referring to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. “Everyone would be dead.” See Matt Robinson, Bloomberg News, Ratings Shopping Revived. Striking quote,...

12 May

Posted at 01:44h in Credit Spectrum

On May 8, 2013, Sohu Business picked up an article in the HK press about a JV ratings agency between SEC-designated Egan-Jones, a Chinese agency, Dagong, and a Russian agency, RusRating, targeted for listing June 25 in HK. It is called, appropriately, "World Ratings." Perhaps not coincidentally,...

07 May

Posted at 06:37h in Film Fundamentals
When Steven Soderbergh is cruising at 32,000 feet, he gets philosophical. That is one impression from his recent State of the Cinema address delivered April 25, 2013, as the keynote speech to the 56th San Francisco International Film Festival. The speech has become a must read, as it has made the rounds of blog sites and entertainment news reports. I think it has actually received more press than the Gettysburg Address in its day.

26 Apr

Posted at 03:07h in Credit Spectrum
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose….."  the more things change.. The rules have gotten more complicated and voluminous but has anything changed? Risk is back in fashion, five years after the March 2008 that Bear Stearns was taken over by JP Morgan Chase at a price of $1.00 per share. To be honest, I wonder if a lot has changed. Furthermore, I have noticed that there is growing number of voices raising similar concerns about the appetite for risk and the resurgence of products reminiscent of the heady days of 2005 and 2006.

25 Apr

Posted at 21:09h in Film Fundamentals
It sometimes takes a lot of work to tell us what we already know. That is one of my impressions after reading the recent Variety report about the current state of Hollywood, as analyzed by Michael Nathanson for Nomura Equity Research. Nathanson's report, based on ten years of scrutiny, seems to present a semi-optimistic picture of Hollywood's current direction as he maps out the its modern business model. Notice I have a “semi” in there. According to this report, Hollywood has succeeded in streamlining cost issues by reducing productions and focusing on a few selected tent pole releases. I guess that is one way of looking at it. In turn, these movies have a higher box office profile and generate much larger revenues. By and large, that is true. For every $300 million spent, at least $250 million is earned at the box office. The report suggests that the past decline in theater admission may now be on a slight upward tick. Actually, the real figures suggest that the decline may have at best bottomed out. The signs of life are erratic. The decline in the home-video market has possibly bottomed out as well. Quick note to Nathanson: don't bet on it buddy.