Great data on sovereign default history recently compiled and published by the Bank of Canada http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2014/02/technical-report-101/ courtesy of David Beers: Read all...

Credit to Pascal Bouvier for highlighting this piece by Annamaria  Andriotis, published 7/26/16 in the WSJ, on the re-emergence of near prime. To paraphrase her gist: Subprime consumer lending has re-emerged, with a new name to conceal the risk. But her gist doesn't jibe with the facts. Near prime, Alt-A are well established consumer ABS terms of art. Near prime dates back to the early 1990s,...

Relativity Media's descent into bankruptcy has been spiraling for many years, almost since its beginning according to some analysts. When the company first emerged back in 2004, it was greeted with a mixture of high hope and deep doubt. Relativity promised new approaches and a vague claim to modern...

ABSTRACT: Sylvain Raynes experimented with a method developed by Goya and Boyarski (1993) to standardize the synthesis of conditional Markov transition matrices for deal entry in our automated re-rating system, ABSTRAK®. In the analytical literature, the reverse-engineering of a Markov matrix from its spectral-radius eigenvector is referred to as the Inverse Perron-Frobenius...

Hollywood's obsession with China was a major theme of 2014. China represents the second largest film market in the world and has become a major market focus for numerous big budget American movies. It has also emerged as a bit of an enigma as Hollywood tries to second guess what the Chinese want. To Hollywood, the model for dealing with China going forward is the massive success of Transformers: Age of Extinction in its Chinese release. In the Hollywood master plan, China simply becomes a major market and financial backer for all things Hollywood. But like the old joke about two Hollywood moguls-Enough about me. Let's talk about you. What do you think about me?"-certain factors get in the way of Hollywood's one-way-street strategic plans. Things like, China's tight control over the release of foreign movies every year; the sometimes slow payment process; the social and political concerns of the Chinese government and their censorship powers;. as well as the very real differences in film sensibility between American and Chinese audiences.

Adam Hartung wrote a great column in Forbes on thinking prospectively.  So good, I took it on board to frame a conversation about R&R.
  1. Stop waxing eloquently about what you did last year or quarter. Yesterday has come and gone. Let’s talk about the future.
In 2015, R&R Consulting will focus more on selling.
  1. Tell me about important trends that are going to impact your business. Is it demographics, aging population, the ecology movement, digitization, regulatory change, organic foods, mobility, mobile payments, nanotechnology, biotechnology…?  What are the critical trends that will impact your business going forward?
Our business is essentially protected, and protectionism is a formidable adversary when you are an advocate of change. The most critical trend facing the ratings business is need to evolve from ordinal rankings to bona fide risk measures of risk and uncertainty. This is a very dense assertion that needs several steps to unpack.